+7 495 / 660 14 38
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  • Ñïðàâêà î êîìïàíèè
  • Îôèöèàëüíàÿ èíôîðìàöèÿ
  • Ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî
  • Íîâîñòè
  • Âàêàíñèè
  • Êîíòàêòû

Ó èíâåñòîðîâ ñëó÷èëñÿ îñòðûé ïðèêóï.  ÿíâàðå îíè ïîâåðèëè â ðûíêè è ìèðîâóþ ýêîíîìèêó

 ÿíâàðå ó èíâåñòîðîâ íàáëþäàåòñÿ èçáûòîê îïòèìèçìà — óïðàâëÿþùèå æäóò âîññòàíîâëåíèÿ ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè è ïåðåñòàþò äåðæàòü íàëè÷íûå â ïîðòôåëÿõ, åâðîïåéñêèå ñòðàíû ñðàçó ïîñëå ñíèæåíèÿ ðåéòèíãà íàõîäÿò æåëàþùèõ îäîëæèòü èì ïîä áîëåå íèçêèé ïðîöåíò, à ïå÷àëüíî èçâåñòíàÿ êîðïîðàöèÿ Freddie Mac ñ óñïåõîì ðàçìåùàåò îáëèãàöèè ñ èïîòå÷íûì ïîêðûòèåì.  ïðîøëûå ãîäû ÿíâàðñêîãî çàðÿäà èíâåñòèöèîííîé áîäðîñòè õâàòàëî íà íåñêîëüêî ìåñÿöåâ.

ßíâàðñêèé îïðîñ ïîðòôåëüíûõ óïðàâëÿþùèõ, ïðîâåäåííûé àíàëèòèêàìè Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch, ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàë ðåçêèé ðîñò îïòèìèçìà èíâåñòîðîâ îòíîñèòåëüíî ñóäüáû ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè.  àíêåòèðîâàíèè ïðèíÿëè ó÷àñòèå 286 óïðàâëÿþùèõ, ïîä óïðàâëåíèåì êîòîðûõ íàõîäèëèñü àêòèâû íà ñóììó $818 ìëðä. Ïî äàííûì îïðîñà, ÷èñëî óïðàâëÿþùèõ, óâåðåííûõ â òîì, ÷òî â òå÷åíèå 2012 ãîäà òåìïû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà óñêîðÿòñÿ, ôàêòè÷åñêè ñðàâíÿëîñü ñ ÷èñëîì òåõ, êòî æäåò çàìåäëåíèÿ ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè (÷èñëî ïåññèìèñòîâ âñåãî íà 3% ïðåâûñèëî ÷èñëî îïòèìèñòîâ).  äåêàáðå íàñòðîåíèÿ áûëè êóäà áîëåå ìðà÷íûìè: ÷èñëî ïåññèìèñòîâ íà 27% ïðåâûøàëî ÷èñëî îïòèìèñòè÷íî íàñòðîåííûõ èíâåñòîðîâ. Ñòîëü ñèëüíîãî èçìåíåíèÿ â íàñòðîåíèÿõ èíâåñòîðîâ àíàëèòèêè íå ðåãèñòðèðîâàëè ñ ìàÿ 2009 ãîäà.

Îïòèìèçì ïîçâîëÿåò èíâåñòîðàì ïðèíèìàòü íà ñåáÿ áîëåå âûñîêèå ðèñêè. Ñîâîêóïíûé èíäèêàòîð ðèñêà è ëèêâèäíîñòè BofA Merrill Lynch ïîäíÿëñÿ äî ñàìîãî âûñîêîãî óðîâíÿ ñ èþëÿ 2011 ãîäà, âðåìåíè íà÷àëà íàèáîëåå îñòðîé ôàçû êðèçèñà ñóâåðåííîãî äîëãà.  èòîãå äîëÿ íàëè÷íûõ â ïîðòôåëÿõ óïðàâëÿþùèõ óïàëà äî ñàìîãî íèçêîãî óðîâíÿ çà ïîëãîäà — 4,4%.

 òàêèõ óñëîâèÿõ ñòðàíû Åâðîïû, êîòîðûì àãåíòñòâî S&P â ïÿòíèöó ïîíèçèëî ñóâåðåííûå ðåéòèíãè, âïîëíå óñïåøíî ïðîâîäÿò äîëãîâûå çàèìñòâîâàíèÿ. Â÷åðà Èñïàíèÿ ðàçìåñòèëà âåêñåëÿ ñî ñðîêàìè îáðàùåíèÿ 12 è 18 ìåñÿöåâ íà ñóììó €4,88 ìëðä. Äîõîäíîñòü ãîäîâûõ âåêñåëåé ñîñòàâèëà 2,05% ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ 4,05% ìåñÿöåì ðàíåå, äîõîäíîñòü 18-ìåñÿ÷íûõ âåêñåëåé óïàëà ñ 4,226% äî 2,4%. Ãðåöèÿ, ðàçãîâîðû î íåîòâðàòèìîñòè äåôîëòà êîòîðîé íå óòèõàþò äî ñèõ ïîð, â÷åðà ðàçìåñòèëà òðåõìåñÿ÷íûå îáëèãàöèè íà ˆ1,625 ìëðä ïîä 4,64% (ïðåäûäóùåå ðàçìåùåíèå 20 äåêàáðÿ ïðîøëî ïî ñòàâêå 4,68%). Ôðàíöèÿ, ïîòåðÿâøàÿ â ïÿòíèöó âûñøèé ðåéòèíã AAA, â ïîíåäåëüíèê ðàçìåñòèëà ãîäîâûå îáëèãàöèè íà ˆ1,9 ìëðä ñ äîõîäíîñòüþ 0,41% ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ 0,45% íà ïðåäûäóùåì àóêöèîíå.

Îïòèìèçì èíâåñòîðîâ ïðèÿòíî óäèâèë è ðóêîâîäèòåëåé àìåðèêàíñêîãî èïîòå÷íîãî àãåíòñòâà Freddie Mac (ñ ïðîáëåì êîòîðîãî è íà÷àëñÿ ôèíàíñîâûé êðèçèñ â 2007 ãîäó), ðàçìåñòèâøåãî 13 ÿíâàðÿ äåñÿòèëåòíèå îáëèãàöèè íà $3 ìëðä ñ íåîæèäàííî íèçêîé äîõîäíîñòüþ — 2,06% ãîäîâûõ. "Òî, êàê íàøå ïðåäëîæåíèå áûëî ïðèíÿòî ðûíêîì, ñòàëî äëÿ íàñ ïðèÿòíûì ñþðïðèçîì, ïðè ïåðâîíà÷àëüíîì îáúåìå ïðåäëîæåíèÿ $1,5 ìëðä ìû ïîëó÷èëè çàÿâîê íà $4,5 ìëðä",— öèòèðóåò Bloomberg ñòàðøåãî ïîðòôåëüíîãî óïðàâëÿþùåãî Freddie Mac Ìîõèòà Ñóäõàêàðà, êîòîðûé îáúÿâèë â÷åðà î òîì, ÷òî àãåíòñòâî ïëàíèðóåò â ýòîì ãîäó ïðèâëå÷ü ñ ïîìîùüþ ñåêüþðèòèçàöèè èïîòå÷íûõ àêòèâîâ $20-40 ìëðä.

Âïðî÷åì, â ÿíâàðå èíâåñòîðû òðàäèöèîííî ñìîòðÿò íà ìèð ñ îïòèìèçìîì. Åñëè â äåêàáðå ôîíäû ïîäâîäÿò èòîãè èíâåñòèðîâàíèÿ çà ãîä è ôèêñèðóþò ïðèáûëü èëè óáûòêè, òî â íà÷àëå ãîäà îíè âîçâðàùàþòñÿ íà ðûíîê. Ïî äàííûì Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, ôîíäû êàòåãîðèè GEM çà ïîñëåäíèå ñåìü ëåò (çà èñêëþ÷åíèåì 2008 ãîäà) â íà÷àëå ÿíâàðÿ ïðèâëåêàëè â ñðåäíåì $1 ìëðä åæåíåäåëüíî. "Òÿæåëî ïðèâëå÷ü íîâîãî êëèåíòà, äåìîíñòðèðóÿ íåãàòèâíûé âçãëÿä íà àêòèâû, êîòîðûìè óïðàâëÿåøü,— ïîÿñíÿåò äèðåêòîð Simargl Capital Äìèòðèé Ñàäîâûé.— Ïîýòîìó â íà÷àëå ãîäà óïðàâëÿþùèå äîëæíû áóêâàëüíî èçëó÷àòü îïòèìèçì, äàæå åñëè â òå÷åíèå ãîäà îí íå îïðàâäàåòñÿ". Òàê, â ÿíâàðå 2011 ãîäà ÷èñëî óïðàâëÿþùèõ, óâåðåííûõ â ðîñòå ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè íà 55%, ïðåâûøàëî ÷èñëî òåõ, êòî æäàë åå çàìåäëåíèÿ. Óæå â ñåíòÿáðå ïåññèìèñòîâ áûëî íà 17% áîëüøå.  îòíîøåíèè ðîñòà ýêîíîìèêè åâðîçîíû îïòèìèñòîâ â íà÷àëå ïðîøëîãî ãîäà áûëî íà 44% áîëüøå, ÷åì ïåññèìèñòîâ. Íî â íîÿáðå ðåöåññèþ îæèäàëè íà 72% áîëüøå óïðàâëÿþùèõ, ÷åì ðàññ÷èòûâàþùèõ õîòÿ áû íà ñèìâîëè÷åñêèé ðîñò.

Êàê è â êîíöå ïðîøëîãî ãîäà, îïðåäåëÿþùèì äëÿ ïîâåäåíèÿ ïîðòôåëüíûõ óïðàâëÿþùèõ áóäåò ðàçâèòèå ñèòóàöèè â Åâðîïå. Àíàëèòèê "Àëüÿíñ ÐÎÑÍÎ óïðàâëåíèå àêòèâàìè" Àðèýë ×åðíûé îòìå÷àåò, ÷òî âûøåäøèå íà ìèíóâøåé íåäåëå ïîçèòèâíûå äàííûå ïî ýêîíîìèêå Ãåðìàíèè è Ôðàíöèè ïîäîðâàëè óâåðåííîñòü â íåèçáåæíîñòè ðåöåññèè â åâðîçîíå. À ðàçìåùåíèå â êîíöå äåêàáðÿ ïðîøëîãî ãîäà äåíåæíûõ ñðåäñòâ ÅÖÁ ñðåäè êðåäèòíûõ îðãàíèçàöèé ñíÿëî íàïðÿæåíèå ñ ëèêâèäíîñòüþ (ñì. ñïðàâêó). Ïî ñëîâàì óïðàâëÿþùåãî ïîðòôåëåì ÓÊ "Ãàçïðîìáàíê — óïðàâëåíèå àêòèâàìè" Àëåêñàíäðà Ïðèñÿæíþêà, "òàêàÿ ïîëèòèêà äàåò âîçìîæíîñòü Åâðîñîþçó "êóïèòü âðåìÿ" äëÿ ðàçðåøåíèÿ íà ïîëèòè÷åñêîì óðîâíå âîïðîñîâ áþäæåòíîé äèñöèïëèíû è ñîãëàñîâàíèÿ îáùååâðîïåéñêîé ïîçèöèè ïî âîïðîñàì äîëãîâ".

Âèòàëèé Ãàéäàåâ, Èâàí Êóçíåöîâ


Èñòî÷íèê: http://stocks.investfunds.ru/news/24617/

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